Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework

Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework Abstract A profound transformation of China’s energy system is required to achieve carbon neutrality. Here, we couple Monte Carlo analysis with a bottom-up energy-environment-economy model to generate 3,000 cases with different carbon peak times, technological evolution pathways and cumulative carbon budgets. The results show that if emissions peak in 2025, the carbon neutrality goal calls for a 45...